12/12/2013 Mortgage Bond Market Activity

Everyday I wake up and the first thing I look at is how the Bond market is starting off and the direction it is moving.  Yes this could be a little odd to some people, but it helps me with my clients and my referral partners to stay in the loop of my industry.  I do the extra steps to make sure people look to me as an expert in my field and try to understand the direction of rates and whether or not to lock in .  Well some of you may wonder what exactly I am looking at, and below is exactly what I read.


Current Trend Direction: Sideways

Advise Your Clients: Locking

Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $103.22, -9bp

Jobs – now you see ’em. Now you don’t. In the previous week, Weekly Initial

Jobless Claims fell to 298K, the lowest level since early September and most

likely influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday. But last week, claims surged by

68K to 368K and above the 315K expected, the highest level since early

October. The labor market recovery continues to be modest and uneven.

Throw in higher Retail Sales for November at 0.7% and above the 0.6%

expected and we have Mortgage Bonds indecisive and trading modestly lower.

On the heels of yesterday’s weak 10-Year Note $21B offering, the Treasury will

be unloading $13B 30-Year Bonds at 1:00pm ET. A sloppy auction could ding

Bonds again today.

In foreclosure news, RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure inventory fell by 15% from October to November and up 37% from a year ago. The foreclosure problem continues to improve from the abyss seen a couple of years ago. Foreclosure activity includes default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

And this news from Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D and member of MMG’s Expert Advisory Board –

The recent budget deal which reduces fiscal drag, along with improving employment numbers, the likelihood of faster growth in 2014 and the fact that long-term rates have adjusted to the idea that tapering will soon start, makes me peg the probability of a December taper at 25%, up from zero last month.

The Fed will couple any tapering announcement with a statement/policy reassuring markets that short-term rates will remain super-low. We love EE, but think chances of a taper next week are closer to zero.

Technically, the 4% Bond has slipped below support at $103.48 and looks headed towards the 103.06 level. G-fees, the Mel Watt confirmation, the Volker rule, the final HUD announcement, better Jobs report, fears of tapering…and couple that with the Head and Shoulders bear market pattern that we identified last week, and you have reason to continue locking, as the path of least resistance remains lower.


All page content by Bruce McLaughlin Eagle Home Mortgage 1029 East Main Puyallup WA 98372 NMLS 70081 253-651-5755 Contact me directly for any questions